Much to the surprise of experts, and in the wake of seemingly good economic news yesterday, the Department of Labor released stats today showing the unemployment rate at 10.2 percent. This is the first time U.S. unemployment has been above 10 percent since 1983. To find unemployment that high before then, you have to dig all the way back to before World War II.
It had been looking like we might get through 2009 without getting into double digits. Instead, I think we're going to have a tough holiday season. The Dow can't stay above 10,000 for long with numbers like these.
Yesterday's Senate passage of another unemployment extension seems especially timely (wonder if folks in Congress got an early heads-up on the BLS data). President Obama will likely sign it soon.
It also begs the question of whether expanding unemployment benefits is enough. It certainly doesn't pay enough to live on long term, so it's questionable how much the extension can keep consumer spending alive. I've heard talk of a possible tax credit for job creation, or even large, federal public works projects along the lines of the New Deal era.
If you add in the number of people who are working part-time when they'd prefer full-time, and those "marginally attached" to employment, we're looking at 17.5 percent of Americans who don't have the jobs they need.
I'm going to keep singing this tune until I get everyone to sing along with me: if the recovery depends on consumer spending, then the recovery depends on jobs.
Are we doing enough to create them?
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