It's been interesting to watch policymakers and the media jump on the economic crisis bandwagon since summer. Some of the cleverer ones caught on early in the year, when the subprime mortgage meltdown began to gather speed and unemployment numbers started edging up.
Those of us in workforce development and other human services have seen it coming for a long time.
Round about the time of the $700B bailout there was a lot of talk about "root causes" of the current economic crisis. Some blame the creation of mortgage-backed securities that de-linked lenders from borrowers and created something of a moral hazard. Others blame the explosion of sub-prime mortgages, where mortgage brokers and borrowers played a wink-wink, nudge-nudge game of pretending they didn't know the loans could never be repaid. Still others blame greed, pure and simple, on the part of both lenders and borrowers.
In addition to mortgages, there's all the other debt Americans have taken on. You can see it in the chart on the right (click here for a better view). Debt payments as a percent of disposable personal income has soared. Bankruptcy filings exploded in 2005. Prodded by lenders, Congress passed a law making it much
harder to declare bankruptcy. Filings fell, but two years later they'd grown again to
a level higher than they were in 1990.
Yes, Americans took on more debt than they could repay. But why?
Answering that question gets us to the real root cause of the problem: in recent years, wages haven't kept up with the cost of living.
Americans have been living fairly well, but it isn't because we're
earning enough, it's because we've been borrowing. Sure, plenty of that
has been spent on things we didn't need. But increasingly, consumers
have taken on more debt to pay for things like health care, a college
education and even to put food on the table.
Then there's
that crazy housing bubble. Anyone who tried to buy a house in any
urban or suburban market - and even some rural markets - since 2004
knew something was really out of whack. People earning middle-class
incomes couldn't afford what was for sale in middle class
neighborhoods.
The availability of easy credit didn't solve any problems, it hid them. As credit has dried up, they've come to light.
If anyone - Congress, President-elect Obama, state or local governments, or even Goldman Sachs - is going to solve the real problem, then they need to get at the real root of it: Jobs and wages have to keep pace with the cost of living. The so-called "real economy" needs balance, and it needs real money, not just credit. At minimum, that will require government intervention in the form of supports for working people and regulation of markets.
You read it here first. I've been calling for a new New Deal that invests in both infrastructure and our service economy on this blog since way back in April 2007. Today, elected officials and Wall Street analysts are saying much the same thing.
Chart source: American Bankruptcy Institute
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